What Negligence Theory Needs to Learn from Automobile Insurance: “Fault is Predictively Irrelevant” (and Why)

It was established beyond the shadow of a doubt [in the early 1960s] that the individual who is involved in automobile accidents, regardless of whether he appears to cause them or not, is much more likely to have accidents in the future than is the person who is accident free. These studies embraced probably well over 1 million cases in the aggregate. Note that I have just referred to accidents and not to claims, as it was learned early in the studies that involvement in an accident regardless of who was at fault, was the important consideration and not the size of the claim produced. . . . It does not matter whether the police records were accurate or inaccurate or who was to blame for the accident. It is the occurrence of the accident which counts. [Letter quoted in a 1967 Congressional report.]